I am reminded of a cold and overcast autumn day in 2002. It was polling day for the Jammu and Kashmir assembly. There was a sullen knot of people standing outside the women's college on the outskirts of Anantnag. They were not going to vote, they said. Indeed, there was hardly anyone at the polling booths inside the college premises. In the heart of Anantnag town, the effect of the boycott was even worse. Polling was almost nil.
The situation was not much different through the morning of polling day when assembly elections came round again six years later, in 2008 – although the general voter turnout across the Kashmir Valley was much higher that year.
Polling in the Anantnag by-election on Wednesday has also been desultory, but the fact that queues of people voting were reported at least in the outskirts of Anantnag in the morning is a positive sign. For, three new factors have come into play in this by-election, each of which was bound to cause a decline in turnout compared with the past.
One, this is the peak of the month of Ramzaan – and it is a day after the summer solstice, when the daylight period of fasting is longest. Two, this is the first electoral opportunity that people in the Valley have had to show resentment against the PDP's alliance with the BJP – and resentment has been deeply felt. Three, not only is militancy on the rise, the young militant icon Burhanuddin – who is based in south Kashmir, where Anantnag is located – released a video-recorded statement warning against participation in state-sponsored activities just as the campaign for Anantnag was revving up.
In light of these factors, this by-election has been a huge test for the new chief minister, Mehbooba Mufti, who is contesting. The seat fell vacant after her father's death on 7 January this year, and had to be filled within six months. The political visionary in Sayeed had put his career on the line by opting to contest from Anantnag in 2008 and again in 2014. It is a largely urban constituency, and urban constituencies in Kashmir are far more prone than rural ones to boycott polls and generally to thumb their noses at the regime.
Given the institutional party infrastructure at his command, Mufti Sayeed would probably have been able to romp to victory from his native Bijbehara and several other nearby rural constituencies – as long as he secured a sinecure such as a seat in Parliament for the sitting MLA.
The result of his courageous decision to contest from Anantnag town is that his daughter and chosen successor has had to campaign vigorously over the past few days. But the fact that the election is a real test, cuts both ways: if she wins (as she most likely will), she will be able to count her victory as a mark of genuine popular endorsement.
The enthusiastic turnout of people for her 'road-shows' over the past few days – and for that matter, those of her main rival, the Congress party – has demonstrated that mainstream politics retains a lively pull despite the three negative factors (Ramzan, Burhan, BJP coalition) that are in play.
There has been no dearth of nay-sayers claiming that the enthusiastic crowds who have cheered candidates and other campaigners (including actor Raj Babbar) were paid. The fact is that, for decades, there has been no dearth of money available to voters and to boycott agitators from various sides. So, if crowds emerge, it does demonstrate enthusiasm. Of course the fact that the likely winner is the sitting chief minister plays a huge part. A number of locals speak of it as their chief reason – saying it as if the statement were self-explanatory. What they mean of course is that they expect much investment, development and responsiveness from the state government at all levels.
If she does win, Mehbooba Mufti will have her task cut out to fulfil the very high aspiration levels of not only Anantnag constituency but also of the rest of the Valley, and indeed the various parts of this most diverse state. She has demonstrated cautious maturity in her initial few weeks in office. Her energy and dynamism will now be in high demand.
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